Because of the War in Gaza, there have been a few discussions in different social media groups about the possibility of sending war refugees to Mars once it is up and running. After all, Mars will need them, and if Musk is correct on price, a ticket there would be less than the ongoing cost of maintaining a refugee in many countries. So why not send them?
Let’s start with many refugees are families and you can’t send kids.
It will take at least a decade and likey much longer of raising animals such as dogs, goats, and pigs there before we understand how to do it safely and get the right bone and muscle development in a growing animal for a healthy life.
As for the adults, the objection that they do not have the education for it is nonsense, in my opinion. They are just as educated as any general population of any urban center. Mars, just like earth cities, will have jobs for any normal city level education. The demand for employees would be high enough that almost any person can get a job that stays healthy.
And there is the real problem. To say healthy on Mars, it is going to require a dedication to working out seldom seen outside of professional sport. At a guess, 80 % of the general population won’t stick to it to the level needed and develop health problems in one Martian year and be sent home. For refugees that are only there because they were kicked out of their home, that will be near 100%. They get sent right back to earth, and not only are they still refugees, but they also now have health problems that those that sent them have to pay for.
No. Mars isn’t going to become the new homeland for any group of refugee.
Part of my ongoing fiction, Donald of Mars deals with most of the population, only lasting one tour on Mars and trying to keep people motivated to do the workouts. It is available on Kindle Vella and Ream
Man in a space suit standing on the red planet Mars. Spaceman conquer a new planet. Concept of the space
This ongoing story, and many of my other works are now available on Ream and have more content I am constantly adding. https://reamstories.com/jamesrsteinhaus.
With the Story Donald of Mars, I have used fiction to try to give people a more realistic idea of what living on Mars would be like. I hope you will read that and my other works there.
What things will people on Mars do for money? The short answer is anything that they can make a profit doing. The economic activities that people will take part in on Mars will vary as much, if not more so, than any city of comparable size on earth. If people can buy supplies, make a product, and then sell it for more than it costs to produce, people will. Eateries, as found in much of Asia, are likely to be common. You had better design the halls wide enough to set up in. People are going to set up in them whether you design for it or not.
It won’t be just people selling food that will set up. People selling goods they have made will also be setting up to sell. Even people offering services part time will set up in those halls. It won’t take long before the busiest halls look like the market of old, or what is still found in much of Asia, Africa and South America. There are things you can do to mitigate it and keep it from impeding traffic, but only if you design for it instead of trying to outlaw it. They will set up where they can make the most sale, not where you want them, unless it has good advantages. That is how human nature works, so you need to design for it, not rely on rules to override it.
Setting up something like “market malls” off to the side somewhere would most likely fail. Modern malls require enormous infrastructure, and are costly to run, requiring enormous mark up by the retailers. Nor is the western flea market a possibility. There are no low-cost low maintenance locations on mars. Nor is there a field or unused warehouses that can be used as free or low-cost places to put them. They are only going to set up places that are cheap as their markup is tiny, or it doesn’t sell. It must be a place where the people they want to sell to are.
The colony may be able to keep venders out of the smaller halls, but only by not harassing them for setting up in the larger, well-traveled ones. Ignoring that problem, as most designers do, is like ignoring the need to travel. This type of vending is as old as cities and will continue there. Some say they can do it online. That will take place. But those who are desperate for more money, and that will be most, will do better selling both online and in the halls. They will not forego that extra money.
That is at least what I think. Thanks for reading. I have a fiction I have started dealing with many of the problems a colonist might face setting up on Mars called Donald of Mars on Kindle Vella and Patron, for those outside the United States.
Once again, the idea that space is going to be Vegetarian, is making the rounds of social media. There is close to no chance of that happening. If people can live there, they can make a profit raising meat there, and will. Only violence against those that want to do it can prevent it. That level of violence is costly, has little chance of succeeding and would most likely see the project ended. Meat will be available to anyone willing to pay the extra price, just like everywhere else man lives. Only what that price is and which meats will be available is in question.
All of the following assumes that these can reproduce on Mars, something not yet verified. If they can’t then there are sufficient biological problems with living in that environment that it will never be colonized, but that would be a different topic.
Fish
A wide variety of fish is likely to be the most common and least expensive meats there. Aquaponics is likely to be responsible for a large part of crop growth. It would not surprise me that the very first mission there will bring some fish and set up a small system testing that for viability. The ecological balance these systems require, contains the needed bio-reduction organisms needed for waste processing. Just having thriving aquaponics systems in the same macro system that is a habitat, will increase the efficiency of waste processing and might in fact be part of it.
It has drawbacks. You must turn somewhere between twenty and sixty percent of all plant raised into fish feed. This, plus time spent, plus capital startup cost, sets the market value that fish can be sold for. That puts fish in the neighborhood of three times the price for common vegetables as initial minimal selling price. This is somewhat higher than earth. Supply and demand is likely to push it higher. Higher prices means, it is profitable to invest there. People will continue investing in it until sufficient have invested in aquaponics to bring it down to this minimum. Fish will become readily available, though cost more than on earth.
Chicken
The chicken presents more problems. The first one is they have no tolerance of free fall due to needing gravity to eat. Transporting them as far as Mars or the moon will require centrifuge cages and more work on the crews transporting them, than fish. They require more work and space on Mars. But investors are likely to pay that cost by the second or third colony trip. The market forces for egg, meat, and feathers make it an excellent investment. The system for processing chicken waste for the plants instead of fish waste is only slightly more complicated, so operation cost will only increase slightly. Egg production, if left to the market, will rise until they retail somewhere between two and three times what common vegetables do and wholesale for twice vegetable prices, making them the cheapest and most common form of animal protein on Mars. Feathers can be reduced to fiber. It is unlikely that enough can be produced to make any significant dent in Mars’ need of fibers for manufacturing. That means the bottom rate for feathers will be equal to that of vegetable fibers.
That leaves the meat. In my opinion, cost and market demand mean people keep investing in raising more chickens until the price falls to around ten percent higher than fish.
Guinea Pig and Rabbit.
Guinea and Rabbit are likely to be in production as soon or sooner than chickens despite being less efficient and less popular to eat than chicken. People have raised these as meat profitably in cages for centuries and still do. With fewer meat options on the market on Mars, the profitability will be higher. Nor will meat be the sole product. Fur, teeth, and bone all have vital manufacturing uses so certain manufacturers will be eager to buy any a Mars’ colonist has for sale.
It is just my opinion but, the production of these will never be enough to bring market price much below twice what fish sell for, despite the ease at cage raising them.
Goats
Not as early as the other meat mentioned so far, but still within the first ten to twenty years of setting up, people will invest in having goats. The market of real dairy, even if it is goat instead of cow milk, will make investing in it well worthwhile. They will invest money in it just as man has invested in bringing dairy, in one form or another, everywhere he has gone.
Wool will also be a major driver. It will be centuries before the need for local fiber production is being met. Wool fibers are among the highest quality, cost effective, organic fibers available and will command a price of three times plant fibers.
These two make goats profitable, not so much the meat. But if raising them for these there, some will be on the market. At a guess, goat will go for four times what fish goes for, but that is only guessing.
Pigs
Pigs will probably arrive on Mars at the same time as goats. They are far easier to raise indoors than goats. Their growth rates are on power with chicken production as far as cost goes. This makes them a wise investment. Early on pork prices will be four times that for fish, but investors will continue to invest in pork production until the market drops that price to roughly twice what fish sell for.
What is available is determined by the market. Unless violence is used, the market always determines what people invest in and make available. Many people oppose meat production as a waste of resources. But in most cases, that means less investment in colonizing Mars and far less resources available overall, not more resources for other things. The more that people invest in meat production, the greater the amount of infrastructure investment occurs. The more infrastructure investment, the larger and more prosperous the Mars colony becomes. Without meat production it is entirely possible that there will not be sufficient infrastructure investment for a Mars colony.
All of this means that it is very unlikely a successful Mars colony will be vegetarian.
If you are interested, I have a fiction story Donald of Mars, I started dealing with the problems of getting started on Mars available on Kindle Vella or Patreon.
Despite how the movies and others popularize cities inside domed colonies on Mars, those are unlikely to be constructed. More likely it will be buildings buried under ten meters and more sand. There will be cases where having a ten or twenty-story building sticking up out of the sand makes sense, but those will be few. The overwhelming majority will be buried under more than 10 tons of sand per square meter. This is a safety and engineering matter, not a personal preference matter. Not only does this provide superior radiation protection, but provides the counter pressure on the walls to balance the internal pressure.
Pressurized tunnels buried just as deep will connect them. This creates a short sleeve environment, allowing people to move with ease and safety from building to building without cumbersome pressure-suits. A barrel vault tunnel of close to 20 meters wide and 15 high is one possible design. Such tunnels allow the use of small electric vehicles to transport freight, personnel, and produce, from building to building.
These large interconnected tunnels will be the main thoroughfares where most businesses are located. Companies that build these tunnels can recoup the costs of construction and make a profit selling the right to build next to them and attached to them.
Much smaller 3-meter wide side tunnels, restricted to foot traffic, personal mobility devices, and delivery robots will be built attached to these. Most private homes will be here, as these tunnels are cheaper to construct and maintain. The developers of many of these will likely zone them as residential only. This would be a selling point. These tunnels make it easy to create “gated communities” with electronic doors that only allow the residents of a tunnel, in that tunnel, as additional selling points.
Advertising
These developers-construction firms, and who they manage to sell buildings to, and the type of building being bought are going to be the ones shaping how a Mars colony looks. The construction companies and the people having buildings built will come from every country on Earth. This will result in a more organic design and growth rather than a centralized planned colony.
Many things will need to be worked out between the companies offering building and their customers. How interconnected will the tunnels be? What guarantee can be made to keep substandard tunnels and buildings from being attached and endangering others? Who takes care of maintenance and keeping the tunnel clean? Who pays for the lighting and air circulation?
Different tunnels offered by different companies are likely to have different answers to how they solve many such questions. Nor will every tunnel be connected to every other. You will end up with separate groupings of tunnels that operate with different standards. Travel between such groupings will require travel on the surface in either a pressure-suit or pressurized vehicle.
Such tunnel complexes will be similar to the township in many cases. Some may even have ruling town councils setting rules for them. Others will have such taken care of via contract with the developer. Still, others may try other forms. In some ways, living there is going to be like having a home in a small town with its own building codes and rules of conduct.
One code that will likely be nearly universal is all buildings must be able to recycle their own air, water, and sewage. This will affect, building design, tunnel design, general layout, and other rules. This will result in the Martian colonist being more mindful of how much waste they are creating than your Earth resident.
The big dome where the government or company provides air, food, water, and housing for tens of thousands is not likely to happen on Mars. A dozen, then hundreds, then thousands of tunnels growing according to need an investment level where each provides for its own life support is more probable. Centralization is likely to be confined to the energy production and distribution and even there it is likely to be nodal with overlap.
Most people will live and work in the same “township” only leaving it on rare occasions. Each will reflect the culture and ideology of those that build or fund them. No large monolithic culture will be there, but a highly diverse group of different cultures.
There are scores upon scores of things to still be worked out. This is just the starting point. The Dome concept is dependent on the government forcing people to invest, the tunnel is dependent on enticing them into buying buildings. Tunnels offer a far wider range of opportunities for people also. It is this ability to offer different options to different investment groups in a cost-effective manner than puts it at the top of most likely to be done.
In almost all the space social media groups, when you start talking about how to do certain things on Mars or the Moon, someone says that the robots will do it. While telepresence remotes and robots will be in use to a degree greater than seen on Earth, they are going to be in short supply for at least the next century. There is so many things that need doing that there will not be enough robots to do them all.
There will be over a hundred different jobs that need doing for each and every robot sent up. Most have to have at least some degree of specialization to function efficiently, one design for laying bricks outside might be able to wash the dog but I wouldn’t count on it. Furthermore, for each robot working on one task is going to mean some other task is not getting done. People will need to decide which type of robots to invest in and which jobs they will have them doing. This will leave thousands of things undone that need doing.
This means that people will be doing them or they won’t get done. Many won’t get done, and most jobs will pay poorly compared to the cost of living there. Without the thousands-of-years-old massive infrastructure of Earth, productivity is going to be poor. It is going to cost nearly as much to make a bar of soap there as to ship one from Earth. Making them with the massive infrastructure, both mechanical and biological takes a lot of time and effort. A simple bar of soap could cost you between one and ten hours of labor. There are thousands of products that are the same way. You won’t have robots taking care of all this. Most people investing in robots will be doing it where the payoff is more guaranteed, construction.
Not only will the robots not do everything but the eighty-hour workweek will be more common than the forty-hour workweek. There is no avoiding that the cost of living is going to be extreme. Even if some of the more optimistic forecasts by people such as Elon Musk come true, the cost of living there is still going to be far higher than anywhere on Earth for a century. This means doing without a lot of things and working long hours to get others. Just because robots will be more common there than on Earth doesn’t mean people there can kick back and relax. Most of those are going to be colony builders and the ones keeping everyone alive. The idea that it will be a handful of people being catered to by an army of robots is as far from the truth as it gets.
In the news and social media, the topic of a Mars Government once again come up. Elon Musk has stated that all must agree to abide by the independent government of mars to buy transportation there. That will not work as currently envisioned. A refusal to transport people and groups unwilling to abide by that principle will probably result in fines of a greater value than the value of the SpaceX corporation and losing control of that company. Even should he manage to hold on to SpaceX, refusing to sell transportation to various groups is in effect attacking those groups. SpaceX will suffer attacks in response, possibly ones that delay critically needed supplies.
The idea of limiting the influence of Earth based governments on Mars is a fine one, and one I support. Unfortunately, the way being discussed of doing so, isn’t. Nor are the early colonists going to be permitted to decide who else comes and who doesn’t and what rule future Mars immigrants must live under. It is a fallacy to think mars will have a single government at all. Too many different groups, with many different ideologies have plans for putting their own people and communities there as soon as the transportation is available. Saying I will not allow you to go will not work. Not only is this an attack on those groups, but Mars needs every single dollar invested in expanding its economy and population it can get if it is to have any chance of succeeding. It can’t afford to turn down these investments.
A solution could be not not to limit them at all. Dozens of small sovereign communities, each with its own set of laws and regulations. Nations will undoubtedly sponsor some of them, other by religious groups, but such are likely to be in the minority. This maximizes the number of colonists that can go, and it maximizes the amount of money that is being invested in colonizing Mars. Elon Musk Can still have his Muskville run his way as one community but others will exist right alongside it.
Many such communities will fail, and communities run more successfully will absorb their population and resources. No one can say for sure just what communities will be the most successful and which will fall apart in months or years. Limiting those that can try, and you could prevent the most successful methods from even being tried.
If Elon Musk wants to keep his company, I would recommend he take a more neutral stance and ship whoever is willing to pay instead of only those that want to do things his way. Too many tech companies are trying to say who can and can not use their technology and services, and the backlash is building. By all means he should invest in building a Mars colony to his liking but he should not try to say only these people who are going to follow my rules may build a colony on Mars. That makes him just another earth based government saying how people there must live.
In different social media groups the concept of Mars banking was discussed. Many people thought that their would be no banking or loans on Mars. This is not in any way realistic. If a Mars colony is successful the the banks will be investing their capital there both directly and though loans is only one of the factors. It is going to take a lot of capital to successful colonizing Mars and the largest concentration of this capital in liquid form is in the banking and financial institutions. If they are not involved in funding at least parts of it it is unlikely to have enough capital investment to succeed. This means banks are going to be integral to a successful Mars colony.
A successful Mars colony is going to require a large number of business to be invested in operating on Mars. One of most significant investors in such companies are going to be financial/banking institutions somewhere between 5 and 30 percent of the stocks in such companies will be owed outright by the institutions. A great many more of these companies are going to borrow from these banks so that they can have the necessary equipment to achieve their goals and be in serious debt to them while others will fail and the resources that they own in Mars will end up belonging to these banks.
Banks are even likely to be making small business loans and mortgages to people that they think are likely to be able to pay them back. If the banks are not making such loans then the Mars colony will have far far less capital, equipment, building and supply than otherwise. Just like every where else if the Mars colony is going to be successful then the banks will play a huge part in them becoming successful an keeping the banks out will result in insufficient capital and investment and a struggle just to survive.
This like in most western countries will mean the banks are going to own large peice of the pie. Yet the pie is going to be vastly larger as a result. Without the banks then a Mars colony is one going to reach a couple hundred people by the middle of the century but with banks into the hundreds of thousands if not millions of people.
Life on Mars is going to require great deal of work from the people going there. Just getting enough money for food and housing is going to require more hours worked per week than commonly occur in most industrialized countries. In a great many ways until there is sufficient infrastructure in place the work hours that people will need to put in just to keep themselves fed and housed is going to most closely resemble an agricultural society rather than an industrial one. The safety net initially will be nearly nonexistent beyond a free trip back to earth. Homes and apartments will be tiny compared to western standards. Everything is going to require more hours worked to afford them.
This will include your basic necessities beyond food and housing too. Clothing, soap, household goods are all going to cost you more hours worked to obtain on Mars than nearly any place on earth for the first few decades. Until there is sufficient infrastructure to support high productivity everything is going to be in very short supply. Short supply results in a greater amount of work need to buy them. It is a problem that will self correct in time since the short supply also means it is more profitable to invest in production there and will attract many investors. None the less for the early colonist hours that need to be worked just to cover your most basic needs will be great.
This is likely to result in a great many people also having a side line, something that takes an additional hour or two every day after working their main job that puts extra money in their pockets. Many things that people can make a good living on earth will initial be only thing that are going to be side lines on Mars. Hair styling, painters, singer/entertainer, and many more are not going to pay well enough to live on but pay enough that many people are going to do them as sidelines. As the infrastructure and the population grow these will once again become profitable professions but that point will be years down the road.
Another common method of having a side line will be limited home manufacturing and crafting. Taking what ever supplies you have available and fashioning it into something that people want and will give you more than the supplies cost you is one means of getting an extra income. Knitting a sweater, blanket or such,; selling arts and crafts, even building bookshelves and the likes could be sidelines. Yet the one that most people are likely to be involved in is using their Bioregenative life-support system to produce an sell organics. Whether it is food, animal feeds, fibers or chemicals all will be in short supply and be salable and likely the most common method of earning extra income.
Most all apartment, homes and even businesses will have some version of a Bioregenative life-support system. All such also provide planet matter. For years to come the this matter is going to be in high demand and short supply. Combining what your Bioregenative life-support system is providing and what products you are crafting for sale will become quite common also.
Will this give rise to a version of farmers market and vendors? Probably.
While online sales are knowing who needs what and who has will be how a large part of it happens people bringing what they have to a central market will increase their ability to sell and exchange. It is one means that those that work at it can make living on Mars less hard than it otherwise would be.
There is a very good possibility that starting around the year 2030 regular trips to Mars will commence every 2.3 years. And while the price for such a trip could be something a great many people could afford this doesn’t mean that they can afford to live there. Food and housing there will be among the most expensive anywhere for the first few decades. The cost will be even more than LEO or Lunar colonies which will also likely start by this time. And while food production will likely commence at once on Mars this will only bring down the retail price slightly below what food brought in from earth will cost. The logistics of the situation will make the cost of living there very very high. Earning enough to live there is going to be extremely difficult.
Mars housing design
For people going to Mars a 40 hour work week is likely to be a thing of the past. 6 and 7 day work weeks are almost certainly going to be the normal. 10 to 16 hours a day are also likely to be what it takes to earn enough to live there. That is if you have a skills that can earn you enough at all. With the cost of living being so high Mars colonist are going to be reluctant to purchase goods or services that are not very needed. This will affect what skills can earn a person a living significantly. While a person can likely earn some extra money cutting hair for example it is unlikely that people on Mars are going to be willing to pay enough for a haircut or style that a hairstylist could earn enough to even pay the rent on a tiny apartment. A great many service will fall into this category. Possible extra income and side line but you are going to need a main income.
Other types of services will be contracted earth side. Few if any full time computer programmer or system administrator will be used. Companies can contract most of that earth side far cheaper than what it would cost them to have such on Mars. A technician that installs and maintains computers will also be installing software from earth side . There will be exceptions but in general services type jobs will not earn a person sufficient money to pay the bills. For that you will probably need to actually be producing salable products .
Aquaponics based agriculture
Production of organics will be a primary means of earnings a living there. Turning those organics into useful items will also be significant. In all likelihood 60+ percentage of people will be involved in this for the first few decades. Construction, power production, mining and processing will make up the bulk of the rest. Once the population there breaks half a million then the infrastructure for higher levels of production will exist but until that happens the cost of goods is going to make only the production of goods a viable means of paying the rent for most of the population. Services will be mostly a side line business.
Yet those side line will be a great importance to the people of the Mars colony. Running your aquaponics based farm will often have time where there is enough to profitable keep you working on it. If your main money making endeavor is turning organic into marketable products there is going to be time that they are not available. Your sideline may not pay the rent but will determine how badly into debt you are going to go in the time that your main line isn’t keeping you busy. Not every one will need a side line. In all likelihood most will have enough to do to be working at it 7 days a week 12+ hours but a significant portion will have down time that they are not earning enough to pay for daily needs as those needs cost so very much.
The people providing such services will be very popular with other colonist. Be it a haircut, a massage, a concert or music lesson, or any other service these people are going to be popular even if the colonist can not afford to pay them much. They are very likely to become key ingredient in shaping the social pattern of this society. Possible a second economy different from the production economy many come into existence. No one can say for sure. Assets will be parted with reluctantly services people are likely to more freely offer. Offering services for products is likely going to be a lot of service of a product.
Everything on Mars is going to cost you a lot in terms of man hours. Yet services when and where available not quite as bad. It takes a huge infrastructure to bring down the production costs of goods and services, one that is geared to providing for millions instead of hundreds or thousands. Until that is in place long hours for little pay are very likely to be the norm for the vast majority of people going.
Eptle 